Declining Fertility Rates and the Future of Healthcare Systems

Famey Lockwood
May 13
2 min read

Declining fertility rates are more than demographic statistics — they have significant implications for healthcare systems, workforce planning, economies, and long-term social support structures. This is where health information systems and health information professionals become increasingly important.

Declining fertility rates are not just demographic trends —

they are reshaping healthcare systems, workforce dynamics,

and global future care needs.

Declining Fertility Rates and the Future of Healthcare Systems

“Our World in Data” recently published research examining the global decline in fertility rates. The potential for long-term implications for societies, countries, individuals worldwide are explored.

The data shows that the global fertility rate — the average number of children born per woman — has fallen dramatically over the past sixty years. What is driving this unprecedented decline?

Birth rates are falling globally:

Historically, women had an average of about five children throughout much of the world. Since the mid-1960s, however, the global fertility rate has dropped by half to fewer than 2.5 children per woman today.

Since the mid-1960s, we have seen an unprecedented change. This shift reflects major social, economic, cultural, and healthcare changes occurring across generations and countries. Understanding the data helps us better examine the broader implications for workforce development, healthcare systems, aging populations, and future societal needs.

Let’s review the data:

There are three major reasons for the rapid decline in the global fertility rate (per the study):

1) the empowerment of women — including an increase of access to education, contraception, and increased labor market participation

2) declining rates of child mortality - higher standards of living

3) rising costs of bringing up children - more children are a higher cost to families; the decline of child labor reduces income for families

What this means for health systems:

> Fewer births combined with an aging population will require significant restructuring of healthcare systems

> Demand for maternal and pediatric services may decrease for some populations

> Aging population brings increasing growth in chronic diseases and geriatric care

> Aging population will require more elder care

> Longer patient lifecycles (people are living longer) will generate increasingly complex longitudinal health records and longitudinal data needs

Are health systems structured for this demographic shift?

With an aging population and fewer births (new generations) to care for the population, will this create a crisis for healthcare? Or, will AI be a welcomed and meaningful solution?

AI may become an important support tool for increasingly strained health systems through predictive analytics, workflow automation, clinical decision support, and longitudinal population health management (quote from ChatGPT).

Where Health Information Systems and HI Professionals Become Essential:

> Interoperability across care settings becomes imperative (FHIR, HL-7)

> Secure and effective health data sharing is non-negotiable

> Longitudinal health data management across the lifespan

> Predictive analytics for aging populations becomes essential

Where do you fit in – with your career, with your lifestyle, with a family, etc.?